Yards = Wins

Discussion in 'CFL League Talk' started by Rids, Aug 7, 2012.

  1. Rids

    Rids Member

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    Welcome to the newest feature on the StampsFans.com board. Enjoy! (if you don't well too bad I guess....)

    [​IMG]

    As some of you may know Ridley Scouting has a working relationship with Phil Steele Magazines. We supply them with information about Canadian recruits that are headed to the NCAA and they give us a mention in their NCAA Preview Magazine every year.

    In recent years they have expanded their efforts at Phil Steele Magazines and 4 years ago they added a NFL Preview Magazine. For any NFL fan this is the way to learn about your team inside and out. With 7 pages dedicated to each team covering everything you can imagine about your favorite club. No matter how big of a fan you are, you will learn something that you didn’t know before you read it. Highly recommended.

    In the NFL Preview, Phil Steele breaks down how much the Yards Per Game directly affects the win-loss column. Phil has found that in the NFL that for every 10 yards per game more that your offense averages over what your defense allows is equal to a win.

    So I took that foundation of a formula and decided to see how it fit for the CFL and was actually shocked by the results. In fact four CFL teams had records identical to what their expected records would be based on the yards for and against, two others were within a win of their expected records. The last two were a split with one team overachieving and the other under achieving.

    Stop for a moment and take a guess as to what teams were those last two. I’m guessing you correctly picked one but were off on the other.

    First I’ll start with the four teams that were exactly as predicted. It was the entire East Division!

    Both Winnipeg and Montreal finished with just over 40 yards of offense per game more than what they allowed. 40 yards translates into 2 wins over .500 which in Canada means a 10-8 record. Mission accomplished!

    Both Hamilton and Toronto were in the negative when it comes to their net yards per game. Hamilton was under by about 35 yards per game, which translates into being two games under .500 or 8-10. Toronto, with the worst offense and worst defense, gave up a harsh net of negative 102.67 yards per game. That worked out to just over 5 games under .500, which can only happen with a tie so we rounded up to being 6 games under, or the 6-12 they actually were.

    In the West you had two teams sitting really close in Calgary and BC. Calgary finished with a net 48.11 yards per game average while BC was sitting at a net of 51.17. That could be translated as being 10 wins 7 losses and a tie for each team or just a shade lower than the 11-7 record that they actually posted.

    Edmonton and Saskatchewan were the under and over achievers. First to look at Saskatchewan who finished with a net of negative 37.94 yards per game which should translate into a 8-10 record. However they finished at 5-13 meaning they underachieved by at least 3 wins. Edmonton went the other way with a very middle of the pack team that finished with the fourth most yards gained and the fourth best yards allowed. At the end of the year they finished with a net in the negative but only by 7.94 yards per game. With that net being less than a first down they should have finished with a 9-9 record but instead played over their heads to finish 11-7.

    A quick look at the 2012 season shows BC and Montreal sitting exactly where they should be. Calgary and Toronto are sitting a half game out from their expected records based on the net yards. Calgary should basically be 2-2-1 with their net yardage of 1.11 yards per game. Toronto should be 3-2-1 instead of 3-3 with their net yardage of 18 yards per game. Edmonton, Hamilton and Saskatchewan have the spreadsheet saying they should be 2-3 but instead are 3-2 while Winnipeg has the spreadsheet saying they should be 2-4 but alas for the Bombers they are sitting at 1-5.

    Looking forward to digging into more numbers moving forward. Until then coaches tighten up your defense by a couple first downs a game to turn yards into wins.
     
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  2. iso_55

    iso_55 Member

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    Thanks for this new feature, Rids. Love it!!! And a Stamps Fans Exclusive!
     
  3. Bronko

    Bronko Member

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    This site is unlike almost any CFL site. Full of quality information and solid opinions by long-time football fans. While opinions are often challenged posters are seldom threatened or verbally tarred. GREAT STUFF GENTLEMEN, KEEP ON KEEPIN' ON.....
     
  4. Tundra Mustang

    Tundra Mustang Moderator
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    Where have you been hiding this stuff, Rids?

    Excellent work! :D

    And only on StampsFans, you say....? ;)

    TM
     
  5. Madman

    Madman Administrator
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    Awesome new addition to StampsFans.com - a big thanks to Rids.
     
  6. deuvl

    deuvl Moderator
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    Sounds a lot like money ball. My guess is Jim Popp already knows this formula.
     
  7. Bumpnrun

    Bumpnrun Member

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    Great new feature Rids. Thanks for the additional info.
     
  8. Bumpnrun

    Bumpnrun Member

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    Not all the time but yards also = TOP{time of possession} = field position = wins.

    Football at the core is won and lost majority of the time by the work or lack there of at the line of scrimmage. In theory it makes sense that if you gain more yards in the game than your opponents a team should win. What would be interesting if somehow you add in two variables which can influence or change the "yards=wins" theory which is turnovers and penalties. Regarding the Stamps, I wonder looking at these past two seasons how much effect has those two variables have prevented this team from winning more games.
     
  9. Rids

    Rids Member

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    I will look at that. Here's an interesting tag on. Last year the University of Oregon posted a winning record 8-1 in conference and 12-2 overall with an average of 25 minutes of possession a game. I'm sure they will fit into the exception not the rule but it does raise the eyebrows.
     
  10. Bumpnrun

    Bumpnrun Member

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    Yes the Ducks have quick strike offense. Whenever I watched them play it seemed they scored rather quickly and efficiently. I wonder if a team like Baylor had a similar stat to Oregeon with RGIII at the helm.
    On a CFL note which team last year and thus far has the most or the least amount of TOP with a winning record?
     
  11. Rids

    Rids Member

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    Right now it's Hamilton with 3 wins and an average of 29:14 TOP. Saskatchewan is next with 3 wins and 29:59 TOP.

    BC is the leader in TOP with 32:38 per game which is pretty outstanding. Their net yardage per game is reflective of that as well with 401 yards for and only 277 yards against each game.

    Hamilton is second in yards for per game at 394 (Montreal is third at 392) but gives up a ton of yards at 426 (8th in the League).

    So my conclusion from this is that Hamilton is making the most of their chances when they appear. They are last in the "Big Play" category (runs over 20 yards, catches over 30 and kick returns) but I'm fairly confident that they scored a major on at least 7 if not 8 of those big plays.
     
  12. Rids

    Rids Member

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    Baylor's TOP during their 10-3 season was 27:39. Crazy for a team that averaged 45.3 points per game.

    Oklahoma State was even better with 48.7 points per game in 26:17 minutes of possession per game.

    In conference play it was:

    Oklahoma State with 48.3 points per game in 9 games with 25:56 time of possession.

    Baylor with 40.9 points per game with 28:19 time of possession.

    OkState was just big strike after big strike all season long in their 12-1 season.
     
  13. Rids

    Rids Member

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    I won't post everything right now but I just updated this 2 weeks later and currently 6 of 8 teams are withing a half game of their predicted record based on the yardage for and against. Winnipeg is a full game difference (actual 2-5, predicted 3-4) and Edmonton is a game and a half difference (actual 4-3, predicted 2-4-1).
     

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